Pirates of the Balkan

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22 January, 2006

The trust is a huge gamble



Let’s play a game, a more exotic one. Imagine you have committed a crime together with a friend. You are caught by the police, separated from your friend and you are both being interrogated. You have two options: either to betray your friend and admit to everything or to keep your mouth shut hoping your friend will do the same. What should you do?
Well, let’s see what are the advantages and disadvantages of each one of these choices. We have to take into account what both persons choose to do, because they both influence the general outcome of the situation. The police have already established that: if one person confesses to the crime and the other one keeps quiet, the first one goes free and the other spends 10 years in jail. If they both confess, they both get 2 years in prison. If both keep quiet about what happened, then due to lack of evidence, they will both get a minor-6 month in prison-conviction.
So if you are one of the two, you have to always take into account what the other person might do. You might decide, on a first assessment of the situation, that it’s better to take the safe way and confess. In this case, no matter what the other one does, you won’t get more than 2 years in jail, or you might even go free if you betray the other person and he/she doesn’t betray you. But on second thought you might realize that if you both cooperate and don’t betray
each other the general outcome is better-you will both get less time in prison. Of course if you choose to keep quiet the risk is greater because you can be betrayed and then you’ll rot in jail. The thing is-will you trust the other and take that risk?
This is called the Prisoner’s Dilemma.

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